Modi Government Has Suppressed Uncomfortable Data
Will the government determine how the data should look like? That has what happened in Modi's so called over publicized claim for making corruption free India.
PC Mohanan, Vice Chairman and JV Meenakshi, Member of the National Statistical Commission (NSC), resigned from their posts in January this year 2019 as they felt “the commission was being bypassed on several issues” by the government.
Mr Mohanan said the panel had finalised the National Sample Survey Office report linked to jobs in December 2018 which was not being released by the government. Government sources said there was a move to wait for data for two more quarters before releasing the report. The two NSC members had also said they were not consulted when the Central Statistics Office released the back series data for GDP.
It is also hard to consider the 2015 Central Statistics Office (CSO) data dependable as revised economic output numbers for past years, changing the base year and showing significantly faster and questionable growth rates.
The National Sample Survey Organisation (NSSO) report on unemployment leaked to the media showed unemployment at a 45-year high of 6.1 per cent in 2017-18 as against 2.2 per cent in 2011-12.
Almost 108 top economists from premier institutions all over the world including IIMs Ahmedabad and Kolkata, Indian Statistical Institute (ISI), Delhi University, JNU, MIT USA, Harvard, London School of Economics, University of British Columbia (UBC) Canada, University of California Berkeley, Stanford University are of the opinion that uncomfortable statistical data have been fudged by Modi government.
Their concern for missing statistics is genuine because
1. The National Sample Survey Organisation (NSSO) data on employment-unemployment report has not yet come out since 2011-12. It is not that the government suppressed data for just one year! There was a survey in 2011 but the report has yet to be made public.
2. Status of Socio Economic Caste Census data for OBC supposed to be released by 2015-16 not released so far.
Rapid Survey of Children by Ministry of Women & Child Development supposed to be released in 2016 has not been released yet.
3. Foreign Direct Investment statistics not released since 2015 by Department of Industrial Policy & Promotion( DIPP) of Ministry of Commerce.
4. The National Crime Record Bureau (NCRB) has not updated data of crime in India since 2016. Prison statistics of India not updated by NCRB since 2015. NCRB has not even updated accident and suicide data since 2015.
5. Agricultural wages under the Ministry of Agriculture, Directorate of Economics and Statistics has not been updated since 2015-16.
6. All the states are supposed to come together to give farmers’ suicide data to Ministry of Agriculture has not been upgraded since 2015-16.
In the light of above, are these not the reason enough to question the government as to why it is not giving the nation upgraded data, leave aside what the 100 economists say and what is their locus standi? Has data become a political tool in the hands of the government to feed the nation what they intend to?
Has Niti Ayog been created by the government for policy making based on suppressed data? Precisely Niti Ayog has created no more to be a policy making body ever since it was changed from autonomous erstwhile Planning Commission to Niti Ayog.
What needs to be understood is that there is lot of ignorance about the way the statistical data are created in Indian system. Our statistical bodies are autonomous and independent but they are administered by the government. They are independent, autonomous in terms of their scientific procedures. They are independent that is a critical point. What is needed is that they must retain their independence. That is why Dr Mohanan and Dr Meenakshi of NSC resigned so that the government must understand that it should not have access to data before the results of the independent data are published by the autonomous bodies like National Sample Survey Organisation (NSSO), National Statistical Commission (NSC) and host of other statistics bodies discussed above. These autonomous bodies have been doing commendable work since 1950 and established their credibility for decades with very serious and systematic work. They even continuously tried to improve the systems. So these bodies should be allowed to maintain and continue with their system. Their independence and autonomy should not be disturbed. The idea that these statistical bodies are not capturing new forms of employment is absurd because data collected by them are through house survey service to capture all available forms of employment - dying form, new form and stagnant form of employment to capture largely ffom the informal economy.
Since our government is giving data to the world, the economists from world over also have the right to seek clarifications and question the authenticity of data. The government must respect the credibility of economists and thereby oblige them with actual untampered data because the data suppression may not only disturb the UN bodies to address the problems for providing solutions but also the nation within and the government to get to the actual economic problems needed to be addressed for development and economic reforms.
The whole world knows how the data is generated by suppressing the results of actual surveys. Is this the way our government wants to go? It is matter of concern for fudging data sounding pre-election alarm over Indian economic data and burying unwelcoming numbers due to failure of the government to meet promises to create enough jobs for the million Indians entering the labour market each month.
The national and global reputation of India's statistical bodies is at stake. More than that, statistical integrity which is crucial for generating data that would feed into economic policy is also at stake. Ranting Modi on data delivery in election 2019 campaign are nothing but bundle of lies.
PC Mohanan, Vice Chairman and JV Meenakshi, Member of the National Statistical Commission (NSC), resigned from their posts in January this year 2019 as they felt “the commission was being bypassed on several issues” by the government.
Mr Mohanan said the panel had finalised the National Sample Survey Office report linked to jobs in December 2018 which was not being released by the government. Government sources said there was a move to wait for data for two more quarters before releasing the report. The two NSC members had also said they were not consulted when the Central Statistics Office released the back series data for GDP.
It is also hard to consider the 2015 Central Statistics Office (CSO) data dependable as revised economic output numbers for past years, changing the base year and showing significantly faster and questionable growth rates.
The National Sample Survey Organisation (NSSO) report on unemployment leaked to the media showed unemployment at a 45-year high of 6.1 per cent in 2017-18 as against 2.2 per cent in 2011-12.
Almost 108 top economists from premier institutions all over the world including IIMs Ahmedabad and Kolkata, Indian Statistical Institute (ISI), Delhi University, JNU, MIT USA, Harvard, London School of Economics, University of British Columbia (UBC) Canada, University of California Berkeley, Stanford University are of the opinion that uncomfortable statistical data have been fudged by Modi government.
Their concern for missing statistics is genuine because
1. The National Sample Survey Organisation (NSSO) data on employment-unemployment report has not yet come out since 2011-12. It is not that the government suppressed data for just one year! There was a survey in 2011 but the report has yet to be made public.
2. Status of Socio Economic Caste Census data for OBC supposed to be released by 2015-16 not released so far.
Rapid Survey of Children by Ministry of Women & Child Development supposed to be released in 2016 has not been released yet.
3. Foreign Direct Investment statistics not released since 2015 by Department of Industrial Policy & Promotion( DIPP) of Ministry of Commerce.
4. The National Crime Record Bureau (NCRB) has not updated data of crime in India since 2016. Prison statistics of India not updated by NCRB since 2015. NCRB has not even updated accident and suicide data since 2015.
5. Agricultural wages under the Ministry of Agriculture, Directorate of Economics and Statistics has not been updated since 2015-16.
6. All the states are supposed to come together to give farmers’ suicide data to Ministry of Agriculture has not been upgraded since 2015-16.
In the light of above, are these not the reason enough to question the government as to why it is not giving the nation upgraded data, leave aside what the 100 economists say and what is their locus standi? Has data become a political tool in the hands of the government to feed the nation what they intend to?
Has Niti Ayog been created by the government for policy making based on suppressed data? Precisely Niti Ayog has created no more to be a policy making body ever since it was changed from autonomous erstwhile Planning Commission to Niti Ayog.
What needs to be understood is that there is lot of ignorance about the way the statistical data are created in Indian system. Our statistical bodies are autonomous and independent but they are administered by the government. They are independent, autonomous in terms of their scientific procedures. They are independent that is a critical point. What is needed is that they must retain their independence. That is why Dr Mohanan and Dr Meenakshi of NSC resigned so that the government must understand that it should not have access to data before the results of the independent data are published by the autonomous bodies like National Sample Survey Organisation (NSSO), National Statistical Commission (NSC) and host of other statistics bodies discussed above. These autonomous bodies have been doing commendable work since 1950 and established their credibility for decades with very serious and systematic work. They even continuously tried to improve the systems. So these bodies should be allowed to maintain and continue with their system. Their independence and autonomy should not be disturbed. The idea that these statistical bodies are not capturing new forms of employment is absurd because data collected by them are through house survey service to capture all available forms of employment - dying form, new form and stagnant form of employment to capture largely ffom the informal economy.
Since our government is giving data to the world, the economists from world over also have the right to seek clarifications and question the authenticity of data. The government must respect the credibility of economists and thereby oblige them with actual untampered data because the data suppression may not only disturb the UN bodies to address the problems for providing solutions but also the nation within and the government to get to the actual economic problems needed to be addressed for development and economic reforms.
The whole world knows how the data is generated by suppressing the results of actual surveys. Is this the way our government wants to go? It is matter of concern for fudging data sounding pre-election alarm over Indian economic data and burying unwelcoming numbers due to failure of the government to meet promises to create enough jobs for the million Indians entering the labour market each month.
The national and global reputation of India's statistical bodies is at stake. More than that, statistical integrity which is crucial for generating data that would feed into economic policy is also at stake. Ranting Modi on data delivery in election 2019 campaign are nothing but bundle of lies.
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