Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Russia-Ukraine Conflict: Prestige Issue For US, Russia

The Russia-Ukraine conflict and involvement of US-Russia in Ukraine is most likely to give free reins to China for growing into exercising unrestricted authority. The US declared 16th Feb, 2022  for war. Therefore India asked her embassy in Ukraine to vacate and come back to India. 

However, the Russian defense ministry announced on 16th Feb, '22 the end of military drills and the pull back of troops amid Ukraine standoff in Russian occupied Crimea. The Russian defence ministry shared a video of Russian military equipment and forces leaving Crimea. The move comes after Moscow said on Tuesday the 15th Feb that some of its troops are returning to home bases, indicating cooling of tensions regarding the Ukraine issue. There are 130,000 Russian troops deployed in north, east and south of Ukraine bordering Russia, but Russia did not say how many units were being withdrawn nor NATO, as it said, could see any sign of de-escalation on the ground.

Now, how India is going to be affected if war breaks out, I will dwell deep into it after I take you to the history and the backdrop of the crisis situation. 

In the recent past few months the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has considerably shot up to alarming dimensions. Ukraine has been part of the erstwhile USSR since 1970. Their relationship was so good that the USSR also gave oil-rich Crimea to Ukraine and annexed Ukraine with the USSR. Ukraine became independent after the formation of Russia in 1991. 

The seed of conflict lay in Ukraine's decision to join the European Union (EU), and since 2014 her intention to join the conglomerate of the 30-nation North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). The advantage of joining NATO was the US and NATO ensured all NATO nations would help the US and the NATO member nations in the event of conflict or war with any non-NATO member country. This was the reason Ukraine wanted to be a member of NATO so that in the event of conflict with Russia, Ukraine gets NATO support. 

But that was not to be. NATO membership was denied to Ukraine but the US had her own political compulsion. Keeping in view Ukraine being  the biggest in size among European countries of tactical importance, putting a check on Russian ambitions for supremacy in the eastern European region by the US became a political necessity and compulsion. That is why the US assured Ukraine that in the event of need and exigencies, US and NATO countries will stand by Ukraine.

Russia also does not want Ukraine to join NATO for its own security reasons so that NATO nations could not have easy access to Russia through Ukraine in the event of conflict. To de-escalate Russia wants the guarantee that Ukraine will not join NATO. All the more, Ukraine's joining the EU affected Russia's interest in Ukraine's oil reserves and its transportation through Ukraine via Europe to the rest of the world. Russia took back oil rich Crimea, took control of the Sea of Azov blocking entry into it through Black Sea in Eastern Europe via the narrow Strait of Kerch, deployed a huge force of 130,000 strong army on the Ukraine-Russia border and surrounded Ukraine in the North through Russia's political ally and important economic partner Belarus. Tactically Russia wants to make use of the big eastern part of Ukraine exposed to Russia and it's ally Belarus so as not to allow this biggest country in Europe pose a threat to Russia's security. Once Ukraine joins NATO, it's border will become NATO border and thereby Russia will find it hard to close on Ukraine. At the moment Russia is able to surround and enclose Ukraine in all possible ways just to mount pressure on Ukraine not to join NATO. Russia also has sympathy from Russian speaking and Russian backed separatists in eastern regions of Ukraine. About 4 million live in two pro-Russia statelets Luhansk and Donetsk willing to ally with Russia for forming a recognised self government. All these conflicting issues have led to the imposition of sanctions on Russia by the erstwhile US President Donald Trump.

In 2017, President Trump imposed Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA), which among other things, imposed new sanctions on Iran, North Korea and also on Russia. 

Meanwhile, the current US President Joe Biden made an impassioned appeal to Russian President Vladimir Putin on 15th Feb, 2022 to step back from war with Ukraine. 

In view of the above it has become a prestige issue for both -- it might raise questions on military capabilities of Russia if Russian troops retreat from Ukraine; and for the US it may be construed as resigning to the military might of Russia if the US accepts the conditions laid down by Russia.

As the US and other NATO members warn of the potential for a devastating war, Russia is not countering with bombs or olive branches -- but with sarcasm --- “Wars in Europe rarely start on a Wednesday.” (16th Feb was Wednesday). This is how Russia uses sarcasm as a weapon in the Ukraine crisis as if Russia is not bothered about threats from the US for NATO operation.

Practically speaking NATO more often than not registered it's failures in dealing with it's operations. NATO goes to various regions of the world, with a big hype to solve their problems, by providing defense to the nation's attacked, with the ultimate aim of supplying arms, and army personnel to supervise over them.

NATO missions are a bundle of failures. NATO failed in Afghanistan, Iraq, Kosovo, Vietnam, Operation Sea Guardian, cooperation with the African Union, Syria, Libya - Operation Unified Protector, Air Policing for securing NATO airspace -- to name a few. So keeping in view the past record of failures, what is the guarantee NATO will succeed in Ukraine?

What if de-escalation efforts fail and NATO mission in Ukraine is put into operation? In such a situation the whole world is most likely to be divided into two blocks. Groups will be formed to be led either by the US or Russia and thereby countries will keep joining the group suitable for their interest. The magnitude of this conflict may get so intense and if war breaks out it is most likely that war may not remain confined to the region of Europe but may open the gates for laying the foundation for the 3rd World War. There could be a new geopolitical upheaval. 

The US and China relationship is already stressful. On the other hand, the relationship between Russia and China is very cordial these days. Situation may take a serious shape if Russia attacks Ukraine. In the 1962 Cuban crisis China supported and stood firm with the USSR. It is also possible China will side with Russia if war breaks out and a US embargo is imposed on Russia. China will extend all help to Russia if needs be. If this happens, i.e the war breaks out then India's troubles also seems to increase. In a situation when Russia needs China, Russia would not care for India. It is quite obvious. Humanitarian or social service can never be a priority over stressful personal needs. In such a situation there will be an alarming increase in challenges on the Indo-China border. In the situation of the US President Joe Biden's focus on Ukraine, Biden may not afford any distraction and his concentration on China is also likely to dilute as that of India. This situation will further increase the hunger for expansionist ambition of China un-interfered by two superpowers. Recently Chinese air force planes violated the Taiwan air defence zone more than two-dozen times. The region of Indian Ocean may most unlikely be the priority of the US if she gets entangled in war. The nefarious unrestricted expansionist intentions of China for India may go berserk.

Ukraine is a very important business partner of India. India is a big buyer of defense goods and equipment including aircraft from Ukraine. The Ukraine-Russia conflict is most likely to compound the problems for India. At the moment India is moving on with US and Russia, but if war breaks out in Ukraine India may have difficulty in taking diplomatic decisions to take sides with either warring superpower US or her old friend Russia. India is dependent on Russia for critical weapon equipment, whereas on other items of trade India is dependent on the US and Europe. Take, for example, the recently concluded S-400 advanced missile deal with Russia by India. Since there was no war situation and India's good diplomatic relationship with the US and Russia, the US did not create any obstacle to disallow India to purchase missiles worth Rs 35,000 crore from Russia. In a warring situation India is most likely to face difficulties to maintain a diplomatic balance in relationship and thereby conclude business if embargo imposed by the US on Russia and warring countries. India needs both -- the US as well as Russia.

Speculations are rife that in a warring situation crude oil price may shoot up to US $ 115-120 a barrel. The Indian economy is already under shambles. Hike in crude oil prices may further affect the reform programmes.

Russia may also stop supplies of defense material to India if Russia gets occupied in war with Ukraine. The obstructed supplies of war goods and equipment is most likely to weaken India. It is also possible China may take advantage of the situation by fanning new disputes with India. 

To conclude it is obvious and conspicuously clear that India may get stuck if the Ukraine-Russia conflict takes to war. India may require extraordinary diplomatic capabilities to find effective and sustainable solutions to tide over the crisis.