WILL UTTAR PRADESH GIVE THE NATION A NEW MAHARAJA???

We all know now that Election Commission has announced the dates of 2019 general election to be conducted in 7 phases. India will go on poll from 11th April to 19th May. Results will start pouring in from 23rd May.

We also know that victory in Uttar Pradesh has always been a determining factor for a party to also form government in centre. Will Uttar Pradesh give the nation her new Maharaja? It is said that way to the political throne of Delhi goes via Lucknow as UP voters have a vital role in anointing the government to power in centre. O yes, UP has been a determining factor for a party to form the government in centre. The nation saw the power and support of the people of UP in 2014 Lok Sabha election to enthrone Modi to the office of Prime Ministership with impressive majority. Hence the result of election battle in the largest state of UP will decide as to which party is going to assume power in Delhi. Therefore yet again all eyes of the political parties are set on UP and to direct all their energy on UP after the announcement of 2019 election. The nation is also keen to see to whom UP with 80 Lok Sabha seats going to repose power in the state and centre.

Even history also stands witness to the fact that the election victory in UP determines victory for the party to assume power and form government in the centre. Apart from Bihar and West Bengal, UP will also go for polls in 7 phases. It is not a coincidence that these three states may emerge as important factor for deciding the election outcome for NDA vs UPA. At the same time one cannot also deny that the most important among these three states is the state of UP with 80 seats which may work as deciding factor for a party to book victory and thereby form government in centre.

In the last election BJP won at 72 Lok Sabha seats out of 80 in UP. In the 2019 Lok Sabha election it has to be seen whether BJP will be able to grab at least 50 seats. Only then BJP is likely to form the government in the centre.

True that 72 seats from UP secured power for NDA in centre in 2014 general election. It is also true that the Lucknow battle will not be easy for NDA in 2019 election. The situation this time poses double-pronged challenge to NDA. While on one hand the coalition between SP and BSP seems to have made the way for NDA difficult to achieve desired success, on the other hand the brother-sister duo of Rahul and Priyanka has injected tremendous energy in Congress at all levels in the party cadre to thwart NDA making easy ingress to grab winning number.

Let’s see what could be the strategy expected to be devised by BJP to register their success in UP before analysing overall arithmetics of double-cross challenging NDA in the forthcoming election 2019.

BJP started luring her unhappy NDA alliance partners to keep them together before the election. Yogi Adityanath government  showered host of ministerial posts to unhappy Anupriya Patel’s Apna Dal and Om Prakash Rajbhar's Suheldev Bhartiya Samaj Party members  -- 7 to Apna Dal and 6 to Rajbhar’s party to hold them together in the NDA coalition. Both the venom spitting alliance parties are bestowed with 13 posts of Chairpersons, Deputy Chairpersons and Members of corporation and commission by Yogi as tactical manoeuvre to please them and thereby strengthen the NDA alliance. The same coalition was responsible for BJP's decisive victory in 2014. Therefore BJP thinks that same alliance will earn her the crown again in 2019 too.

PM Modi announced, launched and gave whole lot of hurried big schemes and projects worth ₹ 102708 crore for UP and made new promises during extensive rallies and meetings conducted, laid foundations of and dedicated projects to the state for the last two months to lure voters of UP. 47 projects were sanctioned for Varanasi, 8 for Jhansi, 4 for Bundelkhand, 11 for Kanpur, 14 for Ghaziabad and 11 for NOIDA. Also ₹ 10,000 crore project has been sanctioned for Gorakhpur and ₹ 538 crore for Amethi. The intention was clear to impress upon the UP voters as much as possible to bring them under the fold of BJP before the election. All these prove how important victory in UP is meant for BJP for pushing NDA to power in centre.

The way PM Modi made hurricane tour of UP to inaugurate and announce projects after projects in UP before commencement of model code of conduct show how important it is to concentrate in UP to make it to the centre to form the government!

PM Modi stressed seriously on effective election campaign management in UP so that “Man ki Baat” reaches straight to huge multitude of UP voters to help decide their mind in favour of BJP. For this in the meeting at BJP Headquarter last Saturday responsibilities were fixed for ministers by assigning them the task for campaigning in different constituencies of UP.

So it has to be seen if the opposition alliance will remain together to thwart BJP focussing all her strength in UP for impressive victory. If opposition alliance remain intact in UP and Priyanka leads the Congress well even by not contesting Lok Sabha seat for herself the outcome of election arithmetics in such a scenario points towards BJP may not get nearer to bag even 50 seats in UP, which is most likely to push the nation into a situation of a hung parliament.