STATE WISE 2019 LOK SABHA POLL ANALYSIS
No Party is Expected to Get Clear Mandate Although BJP is Most Likely to Emerge Once Again as Single Largest Party in the 17th Lok Sabha Election 2019.
A party or alliance needs 272 seats in the 543-member Lok Sabha to assume power and form government at the centre.
In my earlier analysis I had said that performance of any political party in UP is most likely to determine their fate to form government at the center. A likelihood of a hung parliament was also not ruled out in the analysis. But in my definition of fractured mandate, an opportunity for NDA to horse trade “Others” than Congress to muster the number at an exorbitant bidding price to buy them at a price which they might have heard of in figures but not dreamt of to improve their fortune. So the NDA and “Others” are most likely to form the government.
I have been getting regular feedback from my friends from ground zero and from all media sources that helped me to be a bit specific to arrive at state wise break up of seats the political parties in the fray might grab.
A party or alliance needs 272 seats in the 543-member Lok Sabha to assume power and form government at the centre.
In my earlier analysis I had said that performance of any political party in UP is most likely to determine their fate to form government at the center. A likelihood of a hung parliament was also not ruled out in the analysis. But in my definition of fractured mandate, an opportunity for NDA to horse trade “Others” than Congress to muster the number at an exorbitant bidding price to buy them at a price which they might have heard of in figures but not dreamt of to improve their fortune. So the NDA and “Others” are most likely to form the government.
I have been getting regular feedback from my friends from ground zero and from all media sources that helped me to be a bit specific to arrive at state wise break up of seats the political parties in the fray might grab.
In Uttar Pradesh BJP is likely to win 35 seats though down from 71 it won last time in 2014. BSP and SP are likely to win 18 and 21 respectively. That means SP-BSP is set to win 39 seats. At present, BSP has no Lok Sabha MP while SP has five. Congress is likely to double its seat i.e 4 in UP.
Hence the seat tally
Uttar Pradesh: BJP 35, BSP 18, SP 21, Congress 4, RLD 1, Apna Dal 1, Total 80.
Andhra Pradesh: Here the news is not good for TDP as it is predicted to win just three seats while its arch-rival YSR Congress is likely to win 22 seats. Hence the tally
YSR Congress 22, TDP 3, Congress 0, Total 25.
Assam: Two big national parties BJP and Congress are the key players in Assam. A Congress stronghold, Assam saw BJP form the government in 2016 and Sarbananda Sonowal becoming the Chief Minister. The other prominent players in the state are Asom Gana Parishad (AGP), All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) and Bodoland People's Front (BPF). AGP and BPF have formed an alliance with the ruling BJP, while Congress and AIUDF continue to challenge their reign. BJP, AGP and BPF are taking on Congress and AIUDF for the 14 seats that are up for grabs. Hence the seat tally is most likely
BJP 8, AIUDF 1, Congress 5, Total 14.
Bihar: This state is another laboratory of United Opposition, may also not bring news to anti-BJP camp as BJP-JD(U)-LJP camp is slated to win 28 seats leaving 12 seats to RJD and it's ally Congress..
Hence: NDA camp 28, Congress RJD camp 12, Total 40.
Chhattisgarh: BJP 4, Congress 7, Total 11.
Gujarat: BJP 24, Congress 2. Total 26.
Goa: A clean sweep for BJP.
BJP 2 Total 2.
Jharkhand: BJP 7, JMM 3, Congress 3, JVM(P) 1. Total 14.
Himachal Pradesh: A clean sweep for
BJP 4, Congress 0, Total 4.
Jammu & Kashmir: BJP 2, NC 1, Congress 2, PDP 1, Total 6.
Karnataka: BJP 14, Congress 12, JD(S) 2, Total 28.
Kerala: UDF 12, LDF 6, BJP 1, Congress 1 Total 20.
Maharashtra: Maharashtra is likely to see BJP winning 22 and its ally Shiv Sena 10 while Congress and NCP are projected to win nine and seven seats respectively. Hence
BJP 22, Shiv Sena 10, Congress 9, NCP 7, Total 48.
Manipur: UPA 1, NDA 1 Total 2
Meghalaya : National People’s Party 1 and BJP 1 due vigorous campaign by BJP.
Total 2.
Tripura: 2019 Election body declares Tripura west polls "Void" and re-polling at 168 polling stations on May 12 announced.
A clean sweep is expected by BJP to bag both the seats.
Total 2
Odisha: It is another state where BJP may gain as it is projected to win 6 seats leaving the rest 15 to Naveen Patnaik-led BJD. Hence
Biju Janata Dal 15, BJP 6, Total 21.
Punjab: Congress is likely to win 9 seats and Akali Dal 3 and AAP 1 but BJP is unlikely to win a seat.
Congress 9, Akali Dal 3, AAP 1,
BJP 0, Total 13.
Haryana: However, in Haryana Congress again face a rout winning just 2 seat while leaving the rest 8 to BJP. INLD, which suffered a split, will not win any seat. Hence
In Haryana: BJP 8, Congress 2, Total 10.
Rajasthan: May be a dampener for Congress as it is predicted to win only 5 out of 25 seats with the rest going to BJP, which had won all constituencies last time. The seat tally
BJP 20, Congress 5, Total 25.
MP: Similarly, in Madhya Pradesh, BJP is likely to win 23 seats leaving just 6 for Congress. The seat tally
BJP 23, Congress 6, Total 29.
Uttarakhand: A clean sweep for BJP.
BJP 5. Total 5.
Tamil Nadu: DMK is predicted to win 16 seats in Tamil Nadu where its ally is likely to grab five seats. BJP may get one seat while its partner AIADMK may get 12. The tally
DMK 16, AIADMK 12, AMMK 2, Congress 5, BJP 1, PMK 2, Other-1.Total 39.
Telangana: TRS is likely to win 14 seats while Congress may win 2 and AIMIM 1. The tally
Telangana Rashtra Samithi 14, AIMIM 1, Congress 2, Total 17.
West Bengal: In West Bengal Congress and CPI(M) are unlikely to open an account this time while BJP is slated to give an impressive show with 7 seats and Trinamool Congress settling with the rest 35. Hence
Trinamool Congress 35, BJP 7, Total 42.
Other North East states: BJP 3, Congress 3, MNF 1, NPP 1, CPI(M) 1, NDPP 1, SDF 1. Total 11.
Other Union Territories: BJP 4, Congress 2. Total 6.
Delhi: BJP is may fail to make a clean sweep. Hence the seat tally
BJP 5, Congress 1, AAP 1 Total 7.
NDA had won 336 seats in the 2014 polls. In the light of above crossing 272 seems to be a tough task for BJP. NDA may have to settle at 260 to 265 while the UPA get 135 to 138 seats and others 138. Some margin has been kept for the cushionic error in analysis but more or less the seat tally is expected to hover around the projections made.
On the other hand even BJP is also smelling the premonition of impending poll debacle as the nation has started hearing them in the campaign rallies that the coalition government will not last more than 2 and a 1/2 years in the event of NDA is not voted to power. Mind you NDA may also likely to form a coalition government.
BJP needs this jerk to revise their political narrative as importantly as the nation itself to save constitution and democracy. Our textbooks of constitution is not RSS or BJP or Modi.To deal with criminals you need not have to become a criminal yourself. That is why we have constitution and judiciary. To fight the communal forces you need not have to become communal yourself to fire communal hatred all over for tit-for-tat. That is what Modi and his bhagats are into and government is encouraging them by not going for “one nation one law” concept. The government failed to punish the communal forces for their unconstitutional activities for the strict implementation of secular India because Modi and his party have been fooling the nation themselves with their communal agenda and activities.
Nowhere our Constitution says india is a Hindu rashtra because Hindus are in majority. It talks about secular India and "we the people of India" are the citizen of "secular India" in "secular democracy".
The nation wishes this election 2019 results humble BJP to shed arrogance, keep off from corrupt practices itself by serving lies, holding on to uncomfortable data on unemployment, GDP, economic slide down and also to bring Lok Pal to facilitate us to know the source of huge money splurged by political parties in election campaigns. The government, BJP will form. No issues. Fractured mandate is necessary to humble the party. Wish BJP gets the shock to start on with the new session, with new coalition, with purchased associates to run the government with revised vision -- delivery with honesty.
Hence the seat tally
Uttar Pradesh: BJP 35, BSP 18, SP 21, Congress 4, RLD 1, Apna Dal 1, Total 80.
Andhra Pradesh: Here the news is not good for TDP as it is predicted to win just three seats while its arch-rival YSR Congress is likely to win 22 seats. Hence the tally
YSR Congress 22, TDP 3, Congress 0, Total 25.
Assam: Two big national parties BJP and Congress are the key players in Assam. A Congress stronghold, Assam saw BJP form the government in 2016 and Sarbananda Sonowal becoming the Chief Minister. The other prominent players in the state are Asom Gana Parishad (AGP), All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) and Bodoland People's Front (BPF). AGP and BPF have formed an alliance with the ruling BJP, while Congress and AIUDF continue to challenge their reign. BJP, AGP and BPF are taking on Congress and AIUDF for the 14 seats that are up for grabs. Hence the seat tally is most likely
BJP 8, AIUDF 1, Congress 5, Total 14.
Bihar: This state is another laboratory of United Opposition, may also not bring news to anti-BJP camp as BJP-JD(U)-LJP camp is slated to win 28 seats leaving 12 seats to RJD and it's ally Congress..
Hence: NDA camp 28, Congress RJD camp 12, Total 40.
Chhattisgarh: BJP 4, Congress 7, Total 11.
Gujarat: BJP 24, Congress 2. Total 26.
Goa: A clean sweep for BJP.
BJP 2 Total 2.
Jharkhand: BJP 7, JMM 3, Congress 3, JVM(P) 1. Total 14.
Himachal Pradesh: A clean sweep for
BJP 4, Congress 0, Total 4.
Jammu & Kashmir: BJP 2, NC 1, Congress 2, PDP 1, Total 6.
Karnataka: BJP 14, Congress 12, JD(S) 2, Total 28.
Kerala: UDF 12, LDF 6, BJP 1, Congress 1 Total 20.
Maharashtra: Maharashtra is likely to see BJP winning 22 and its ally Shiv Sena 10 while Congress and NCP are projected to win nine and seven seats respectively. Hence
BJP 22, Shiv Sena 10, Congress 9, NCP 7, Total 48.
Manipur: UPA 1, NDA 1 Total 2
Meghalaya : National People’s Party 1 and BJP 1 due vigorous campaign by BJP.
Total 2.
Tripura: 2019 Election body declares Tripura west polls "Void" and re-polling at 168 polling stations on May 12 announced.
A clean sweep is expected by BJP to bag both the seats.
Total 2
Odisha: It is another state where BJP may gain as it is projected to win 6 seats leaving the rest 15 to Naveen Patnaik-led BJD. Hence
Biju Janata Dal 15, BJP 6, Total 21.
Punjab: Congress is likely to win 9 seats and Akali Dal 3 and AAP 1 but BJP is unlikely to win a seat.
Congress 9, Akali Dal 3, AAP 1,
BJP 0, Total 13.
Haryana: However, in Haryana Congress again face a rout winning just 2 seat while leaving the rest 8 to BJP. INLD, which suffered a split, will not win any seat. Hence
In Haryana: BJP 8, Congress 2, Total 10.
Rajasthan: May be a dampener for Congress as it is predicted to win only 5 out of 25 seats with the rest going to BJP, which had won all constituencies last time. The seat tally
BJP 20, Congress 5, Total 25.
MP: Similarly, in Madhya Pradesh, BJP is likely to win 23 seats leaving just 6 for Congress. The seat tally
BJP 23, Congress 6, Total 29.
Uttarakhand: A clean sweep for BJP.
BJP 5. Total 5.
Tamil Nadu: DMK is predicted to win 16 seats in Tamil Nadu where its ally is likely to grab five seats. BJP may get one seat while its partner AIADMK may get 12. The tally
DMK 16, AIADMK 12, AMMK 2, Congress 5, BJP 1, PMK 2, Other-1.Total 39.
Telangana: TRS is likely to win 14 seats while Congress may win 2 and AIMIM 1. The tally
Telangana Rashtra Samithi 14, AIMIM 1, Congress 2, Total 17.
West Bengal: In West Bengal Congress and CPI(M) are unlikely to open an account this time while BJP is slated to give an impressive show with 7 seats and Trinamool Congress settling with the rest 35. Hence
Trinamool Congress 35, BJP 7, Total 42.
Other North East states: BJP 3, Congress 3, MNF 1, NPP 1, CPI(M) 1, NDPP 1, SDF 1. Total 11.
Other Union Territories: BJP 4, Congress 2. Total 6.
Delhi: BJP is may fail to make a clean sweep. Hence the seat tally
BJP 5, Congress 1, AAP 1 Total 7.
NDA had won 336 seats in the 2014 polls. In the light of above crossing 272 seems to be a tough task for BJP. NDA may have to settle at 260 to 265 while the UPA get 135 to 138 seats and others 138. Some margin has been kept for the cushionic error in analysis but more or less the seat tally is expected to hover around the projections made.
On the other hand even BJP is also smelling the premonition of impending poll debacle as the nation has started hearing them in the campaign rallies that the coalition government will not last more than 2 and a 1/2 years in the event of NDA is not voted to power. Mind you NDA may also likely to form a coalition government.
BJP needs this jerk to revise their political narrative as importantly as the nation itself to save constitution and democracy. Our textbooks of constitution is not RSS or BJP or Modi.To deal with criminals you need not have to become a criminal yourself. That is why we have constitution and judiciary. To fight the communal forces you need not have to become communal yourself to fire communal hatred all over for tit-for-tat. That is what Modi and his bhagats are into and government is encouraging them by not going for “one nation one law” concept. The government failed to punish the communal forces for their unconstitutional activities for the strict implementation of secular India because Modi and his party have been fooling the nation themselves with their communal agenda and activities.
Nowhere our Constitution says india is a Hindu rashtra because Hindus are in majority. It talks about secular India and "we the people of India" are the citizen of "secular India" in "secular democracy".
The nation wishes this election 2019 results humble BJP to shed arrogance, keep off from corrupt practices itself by serving lies, holding on to uncomfortable data on unemployment, GDP, economic slide down and also to bring Lok Pal to facilitate us to know the source of huge money splurged by political parties in election campaigns. The government, BJP will form. No issues. Fractured mandate is necessary to humble the party. Wish BJP gets the shock to start on with the new session, with new coalition, with purchased associates to run the government with revised vision -- delivery with honesty.
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