GIG ECONOMY OF INDIA IS DERAILED
Predicting a “sharp but short” recession, the Morgan Stanley economists said they expect global GDP growth will be lowest at -8.6% year on year in the second quarter and recover to 3.0% by the first quarter of 2021.
Whatever be Morgan Stanley's findings, I don't dispute that. It is for sure India currently faces notable challenges, due to unmanageable COVID-19 and the preceding slowdown of the informal economy.
Eyes of global investors are set on India's big consumer market but the outlook of the the current economic situation is depressing enough to paralyse investors will. The day dreaming response from India's policymakers contributing nothing to ease the current situation that is grim and somber. There is nothing to attract investors into current areas than to wait and watch for an opportunity with focus on calculated long-term themes in India.
It is also disheartening that the government has turned her ears deaf not to listen to the experts the world over nor trust the best minds available in India itself than depend on docile charlatans and quacks to follow government's demonic intention to draw public money from RBI, PSU banks, LIC and sale proceeds of "Navratan" Companies, airports and Air India to favour big business houses.
In response to the economic impact of the lockdown, in May last month, PM Modi announced a stimulus programme worth around Rs 21 lakh crore, ie 10 % of GDP - of which 9.2% already accounted in earlier announcements of packages for loan clearances, NPA waivers and loan disbursements. New announcement amounted to only around Rs 2 lakh crore, ie 0.8% of GDP money again in the form of loans than to provide instant food and income security to the daily wagers, low-income households who lost jobs. There has been no packages of cash transfers to buy food or cook paltry ration distributed to few, no employment support, credit support, and food and medical support to a majority lot on the streets forced to make their way on foot to their homes 100s of KM away in remote villages. An annual budget of around Rs 30 lakh crore is presented in few hours in the parliament. A full 5-day drama was enacted for announcing stimulus package of 2 lakh crore. The poor got nothing in hand.
The industry, the unemployed who lost job, the middle class common man needs money to generate demand. Industry, especially in
un-organized sector is not in a position to go to bank for loans as they neither have demand nor labour. Bank is hesitant to disburse loan for the fear of non recovery. That is why bank is also not interested to avail loan from RBI. Merchandise exports plunged 36.5% and imports fell 51.1% in May resulting in a trade deficit of just $3.2 billion as per data released by the commerce ministry today.
Wholesale Price Index (WPI) posted biggest fall in more than four years.
Last month, RBI had cut policy rates by 40 basis points, taking the key repo rate to its lowest ever 4%. Consumer Price Index (CPI) is not available as market survey by Commerce Ministry has been suspended for the last couple of months due COVID-19.
For critical initial moves to support the economy, we believe policymakers need to take bolder steps to address these unprecedented economic threat.
Covid-19 has deep fault lines in Indian economy. Our testing capabilities are insufficient. Our core economic problems -- poverty, inequality, exclusion, and insecurity - have many roots. They are reproduced and reinforced on a daily basis by government's apathy. This is what the nation watching. The government did not give money to the migrant daily wagers on the road but could shamelessly invested Rs 100s of crores on virtual campaigning for forthcoming assembly elections. It is time for the people to question their source of money and from where they get the audacity for their shameless confidence to ignore priority.
Whatever be Morgan Stanley's findings, I don't dispute that. It is for sure India currently faces notable challenges, due to unmanageable COVID-19 and the preceding slowdown of the informal economy.
Eyes of global investors are set on India's big consumer market but the outlook of the the current economic situation is depressing enough to paralyse investors will. The day dreaming response from India's policymakers contributing nothing to ease the current situation that is grim and somber. There is nothing to attract investors into current areas than to wait and watch for an opportunity with focus on calculated long-term themes in India.
It is also disheartening that the government has turned her ears deaf not to listen to the experts the world over nor trust the best minds available in India itself than depend on docile charlatans and quacks to follow government's demonic intention to draw public money from RBI, PSU banks, LIC and sale proceeds of "Navratan" Companies, airports and Air India to favour big business houses.
In response to the economic impact of the lockdown, in May last month, PM Modi announced a stimulus programme worth around Rs 21 lakh crore, ie 10 % of GDP - of which 9.2% already accounted in earlier announcements of packages for loan clearances, NPA waivers and loan disbursements. New announcement amounted to only around Rs 2 lakh crore, ie 0.8% of GDP money again in the form of loans than to provide instant food and income security to the daily wagers, low-income households who lost jobs. There has been no packages of cash transfers to buy food or cook paltry ration distributed to few, no employment support, credit support, and food and medical support to a majority lot on the streets forced to make their way on foot to their homes 100s of KM away in remote villages. An annual budget of around Rs 30 lakh crore is presented in few hours in the parliament. A full 5-day drama was enacted for announcing stimulus package of 2 lakh crore. The poor got nothing in hand.
The industry, the unemployed who lost job, the middle class common man needs money to generate demand. Industry, especially in
un-organized sector is not in a position to go to bank for loans as they neither have demand nor labour. Bank is hesitant to disburse loan for the fear of non recovery. That is why bank is also not interested to avail loan from RBI. Merchandise exports plunged 36.5% and imports fell 51.1% in May resulting in a trade deficit of just $3.2 billion as per data released by the commerce ministry today.
Wholesale Price Index (WPI) posted biggest fall in more than four years.
Last month, RBI had cut policy rates by 40 basis points, taking the key repo rate to its lowest ever 4%. Consumer Price Index (CPI) is not available as market survey by Commerce Ministry has been suspended for the last couple of months due COVID-19.
For critical initial moves to support the economy, we believe policymakers need to take bolder steps to address these unprecedented economic threat.
Covid-19 has deep fault lines in Indian economy. Our testing capabilities are insufficient. Our core economic problems -- poverty, inequality, exclusion, and insecurity - have many roots. They are reproduced and reinforced on a daily basis by government's apathy. This is what the nation watching. The government did not give money to the migrant daily wagers on the road but could shamelessly invested Rs 100s of crores on virtual campaigning for forthcoming assembly elections. It is time for the people to question their source of money and from where they get the audacity for their shameless confidence to ignore priority.
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