India Lives In A Difficult Neighborhood

 India Lives In A Difficult Neighborhood

India is confronting a difficult neighbourhood when Pakistan and China have strengthened their cooperation. The Russia-Ukraine conflict and involvement of US-Russia in Ukraine is most likely to give free reins to China for growing into exercising unrestricted authority. The US and China relationship is already stressful. But currently the US and Russia are focused on Ukraine. For them now India is not a priority. 

Modi's foreign policy has failed to rally the neighbouring countries behind to frustrate the possible and uninterrupted expansionist hunger of China to take possible advantage on India to raise new border issues especially when two superpowers the US and Russia are engaged in war.

Pakistan and China have strengthened their cooperation. New challenges are emerging from the security vacuum Washington left behind in Afghanistan. Other fires to put out include a rapidly drifting Indo-Russian relationship and the military coup in neighbouring Myanmar that has drawn that country’s regime closer to Beijing.

Since early last year, India and Pakistan have maintained a fragile cease-fire along the Line of Control separating India, the recent Taliban takeover of neighbouring Afghanistan presents a new cause for worry. Pakistan-based terrorist groups, such as Jaish-e-Mohammed and Lashkar-e-Taiba, now have a friendly regime in Afghanistan. The Modi government's preparedness to counter this challenge of an expected magnified security threat is not up to the mark. Our army is lacking in manpower, weapons and war equipment. 100 of thousands soldiers are still not recruited due to long pendency of vacancies. There is more publicity in purchase of war equipment than catering to actual requirements.

Chinese President Xi Jinping's trip to Tibet underlines Beijing’s efforts to control a strategic border area. Beijing issued a new and controversial boundary law, which calls on Chinese citizens to help defend China’s borders and authorises patrol officers to use force if necessary. Most provocatively, the law prohibits the construction of permanent facilities near China’s borders without permission from Beijing; it also encourages Chinese citizens to settle in disputed regions. This is a problem not just for India but its neighbors as well. For years, one of India’s closest partners, Bhutan, has fallen victim to Beijing’s transborder settlement strategy and lost control over parts of its territory.

Beijing has been able to influence among the smaller South Asian nations - Bangladesh, Bhutan, the Maldives, Nepal, and Sri Lanka - that have traditionally been more or less content residing in India’s strategic orbit. Except for Bhutan, all are participating in China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), a global investment and infrastructure program. The Modi government has failed to keep the neighbouring countries under her diplomatic control and thereby not becoming the victim of geostrategic encirclement of China.

Beijing is leveraging the BRI to achieve greater diplomatic, economic, and military access to Eritrea, Kenya, Comoros, the Maldives, and Sri Lanka. In the Maldives, China pledged to help refurbish the airport and maintain the China-Maldives Friendship Bridge - a completed BRI project. India has also been encircled by the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor in the west, a flagship BRI project comprising roads and energy pipelines upto Gwadar Port in Balochistan to trap Arabian sea route. Due to growing ties with China and Pakistan, Iran is now interacting with the Taliban, too.

Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, the QUAD is an informal strategic forum comprising four nations, namely - United States of America (USA), India, Australia and Japan. One of the primary objectives of the QUAD is to work for a free, open, prosperous and inclusive Indo-Pacific region. QUAD Leaders' Summit 2022 will take place in Tokyo on May 24. The QUAD summit is in reality to counter China for her leadership role in the region. 

But the QUAD is an imbalanced structure with India being the odd man out. India is the weakest link of the QUAD’s Indo-Pacific architecture. Many refer to the structure as a three-plus one (USA, Australia and Japan + India) and not a quadrilateral.

The fact remains, the Modi government so far has failed to establish India as a global strategist to counter dangers of geopolitical threats.